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In most fields of science, it is common sense that in order to conclude a method doesn’t work you should actually test that specific method.
For example, if you are trying to determine if Newton’s laws are accurate, you’d better test Newton’s Laws as he himself described them in his books, or else you’d better not claim to be studying Newton’s Laws.
What would the reaction be to a study on the effectiveness of “chemotherapy”, for example, that actually just studied the effects of giving cancer patients random poisons? From a certain perspective it makes sense — chemotherapy drugs can be thought of as poisons — but clearly there is a distinction between chemo-drugs and other poisons that matters! So why is it that range scientists can presume to make conclusions about Holistic Planned Grazing, seemingly without loss of professional reputation, by studying rotational grazing systems that have only the most superficial similarity to HPG (in the same way that chemo drugs have superficial similarity to poisons)?
In this article I will be examining the recent paper “A global assessment of Holistic Planned Grazing™ compared with season-long, continuous grazing: meta-analysis findings” by Heidi-Jayne Hawkins. My critique her paper applies equally to the many other range scientists claiming to have debunked Allan Savory’s methods while drawing on data completely unrelated to Savory’s work as evidence against him. (Briske et al. 2014; Briske et al 2013; Briske et al 2008; Briske et al. 2011; Carter et al. 2014; Holechek et al. 1999).
Since no one who peer-reviewed Hawkins’s paper seems to have caught the glaring errors in her meta-review, and no one else in the academic world has yet publicly spoken out against this meta-review, it is apparent that there must be a widespread fundamental misunderstanding of what the term “Holistic Planned Grazing” refers to.
Paddock Map (Conventional top. HPG bottom.)
Holistic Planned Grazing (HPG) is a specific grazing methodology developed over several decades by Allan Savory and his collaborators. HPG has gone through several iterations throughout the years as flaws in the process were revealed and subsequently fixed. The current version of HPG is detailed in the “Holistic Management Handbook: Healthy Land, Healthy Profits” (referred to as the “HM Handbook” from now on) and the “holistic decision making” aspect of HPG is laid out in the HM Textbook (the most recent version is called “Holistic Management: A Commonsense Revolution to Restore Our Environment”).
The version of HPG presented in these two books is the version of HPG which most managers are using right now, and which is advocated by the two major HPG promotional organizations; the Savory Institute and Holistic Management International. Our organization is dedicated to providing hope and support to those who need it the most. We believe that everyone deserves a chance to live a fulfilling life, and that through our efforts, we can make a real difference in the world. Join us in our mission to change lives and make a lasting impact on the world.
Hawkins claims in her paper that “If adaptive management is used, there is little to distinguish HPG from other rotational, high-density, time-controlled grazing approaches such as short-duration high-intensity grazing, intensive rotational grazing, cell grazing, and strip grazing.” (Hawkins 2017) This statement is false, as anyone who is familiar with the grazing approaches in question should immediately realize. There are many, many aspects to Holistic Planned Grazing which are found nowhere else. Sure, there are many other grazing approaches which have superficial similarities to HPG (animals are high density, and moved between many paddocks frequently, for example), but, as in the case of the chemo vs poison example I gave above, there are details unique to HPG which make all the difference!
The HM Handbook is not at all ambiguous about the methodology of HPG. You should read the foundational texts yourself, as I cannot adequately describe the process in this short article. But, for reference, here are a few key aspects which define HPG:
Holistic Management 3rd Edition book cover
Grazing Plan Chart
Now that we better understand what HPG is (a highly specific set of recommendations and processes detailed in the HM Handbook and HM Textbook), lets turn our attention to Heidi-Jayne Hawkins’s meta-review:
She analysed twenty-three studies from around the world and found that HPG has no benefit over Continuous Grazing in terms of animal and plant production (Hawkins 2017). Since her study is very specifically about “Holistic Planned Grazing ™”, we would expect that the studies analysed in her meta-analysis would be actual studies of “Holistic Planned Grazing™”. This is, alarmingly, not the case at all!
*Please note, I was not able to find an online copy of “Gammon and Roberts 1978”. This study was published 10 years before the earliest version of Allan Savory’s Holistic Management, so, barring the use of a time machine, it is impossible for this study to have been studying the specific approach referred to as “Holistic Planned Grazing”.
*Also note, the study “Clatworthy 1984” is a reference to the “Charter Grazing Trials” in Zimbabwe which were personally overseen by Allan Savory. This occurred before he had developed the modern versions of Holistic Management or Holistic Planned Grazing, but because it was overseen by Savory himself, we are going to treat it as a completely legitimate study of “Holistic Planned Grazing” which he created.
(Photo, left column: Fence line comparison, Lebowa, S. Africa, conventional management, left - reducing cattle density - vs HPG, right, - increasing cattle density with planned grazing)
Fence line comparison, Lebowa, S. Africa, conventional v HPG
Let’s compare the grazing methodologies used in the twenty one remaining studies (see the notes above about the other two studies) with Holistic Planned Grazing:
Grounds for Retraction
At this point we can already say without reservation that Hawkins’s supposed meta-review of “Holistic Planned Grazing” was nothing of the sort, and therefore her conclusion that “Holistic Planned Grazing does not improve production” is unfounded, and the paper should be retracted.
An overview of the 17-step grazing planning process from the HM Handbook (Butterfield et al. 2006).
Let’s go easy on Hawkins; lets relax our definition of HPG a bit, and see whether the studies she assessed use grazing methodologies that are at least close to HPG…
There are seven simple questions we can ask to determine how close the grazing methodologies used in each of the studies were to actual Holistic Planned Grazing, as it is defined in the official texts and courses:
…. Now we are down to 18 studies. Four studies, out of the original twenty three, have been shown to be not even remotely studies of “Holistic Planned Grazing™”, and one has been confirmed as a legitimate study of HPG.
Question 2: Did any of the studies implement anything remotely resembling a Holistic Context/Holistic Decision Making?
None of the papers mentioned anything resembling a Holistic Context, Holistic Management or Holistic Decision Making except for Teague et al. 2011 which says “They plan their grazing management within an adaptive, goal-oriented management framework using basic knowledge of plant and animal physiology and ecology” in reference to those using planned rotational grazing. Presumably, if they were testing this same method in their study they would have also used an “adaptive, goal-oriented management framework”, although there is no confirmation of this or further mention of it in the paper.
Question 3: If they didn’t use a “Grazing Plan & Control Chart” or the 17-step grazing planning process, did they at least plan the grazing on some sort of chart and/or in a way that ensured full recovery for each pasture before the next grazing?
None of the papers make any reference to planning the grazing on any sort of chart. However, in email correspondence with the author, I discovered that “Badgery et al. 2017a,2017b” did utilize a grazing chart (although it was not the same type of chart used in HPG). Also in “Dowling et al. 2005” “The paddocks within the ‘cell’ were managed according to the rules established for time-control grazing (all cooperating managers had completed a common time-control grazing training course)” so I will assume they did use some sort of grazing chart, since that is a typical component of time controlled grazing courses.
As for basing the movement schedule primarily on ensuring full recovery for the plants before they are re-grazed (a key part of HPG’s planning process):
Question 4: Did they monitor and modify stocking rate throughout the season to match livestock needs with the forage available (ie. was the stocking rate “adaptive”)?
Question 5: Did they monitor and modify their rest period throughout the season based on the observed rates of growth in the first grazed paddock? (ie. Was the rest period “adaptive”?)
Question 6: Did they use fire, which the HPG literature makes very clear is not a good tool to use? (Savory and Butterfield 1998)
Fire Use
Question 7: If the study was done in a brittle environment, did they focus on creating “herd effect” as a primary management goal?
Herd effect is described in the HM Handbook as “The impact on soils and vegetation produced by a large herd of animals in high concentration or in an exited state… the result of a change in animal behavior and usually has to be brought about by some actual management action – using an attractant, or crowding animals to ultra-high density”. (Butterfield et al. 2006)
Out of the ten studies conducted in brittle environments (Derner and Hart, 2007; Derner et al. 2008; Hart et al. 1988,1993a,1993b; Heidschmidt et al. 1982; Manley et al. 1997; Thurow et al. 1988; Vermiere et al. 2008; White et al. 1991), none have any mention of “herd effect”. Considering that it takes out-of-the-ordinary management actions to create herd effect, we can safely assume none of the studies used herd effect if they did not mention it.
Herd Effect
*Studies in non-brittle environments were given a 2.5 rating for the herd effect category since herd effect is unimportant in non-brittle environments, so whether these studies used herd effect or not should have no bearing on their rating relative to the other studies.
(Left: Research Comparison Table: rating papers cited in Hawkins 2017 by how closely the practices studies match to Holistic Planned Grazing)
(Left:Research Comparison Table: rating papers cited in Hawkins 2017 by how closely the practices studies match to Holistic Planned Grazing)
Note: I will only be showing the overlay for her “plant biomass (kg/hectare)” and “animal gain (kg/hectare)” forest plots. The other two forest plots, showing “plant basal cover (%)” and “average daily gain (kg/head/day)” are not factors which are generally important to practitioners of Holistic Management or HPG since most are concerned with whole-ranch profits, which “forage production/hectare” and “animal production/hectare” are much better measurements of than the weight gain of individual animals or the number of stems per hectare. Of course, you can go and look at those two graphs yourself and overlay them with my rating of similarity to HPG, and you will find that there is little to no correlation between similarity of the grazing system to HPG and plant basal cover or individual animal gain. This is because HPG has been developed to benefit ranchers in the real world, where total forage production and total animal weight gain per hectare are far more important than plant basal cover or individual animal gain. Plant basal cover could be a useful performance measure in HPG since it is related to the function of the water cycle, but it would have to be coupled with measurements of surface litter cover and water infiltration rates to be useful.
Research Comparison Table
Figure 2 from Hawkins 2017
This is Figure 2 from Hawkins’s study (Hakwins 2017). All colours are overlays which I have added. The colours correspond with how close the grazing methodology being used was to actual HPG. Red meaning that the grazing methodology was not at all like HPG and green meaning it was similar to HPG (see the rating chart above). Notice how the four studies which are most obviously not studies of HPG (in red) have been given a collective weight of 82.6 % of the overall effect size!
After re-examining Hawkins’s data with our new knowledge of what exactly HPG is and what it is not, we can draw a few clear conclusions:
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